Updated Apr 23, 2026Slight edge 220 tickers

Do Bollinger Band squeezes predict profitable breakouts?

Across 161 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 0.17%, average max drawdown -4.37%.

A thin edge: +0.17% mean return across 161 tickers, with -4.37% average drawdown — gentle on risk, but the edge is too small to act on alone.

What we tested

Strategy

We want to catch breakouts that come out of low volatility consolidations, the so called Bollinger Band squeeze. Compute 20 day Bollinger Bands with two standard deviations. Define the band width as the upper band minus the lower band, divided by the middle band. The market is "in a squeeze" today when this band width is below the 10th percentile of its values over the previous 120 trading days. Enter long the next open after a day where the market is in a squeeze and the close finishes above the upper Bollinger band. On entry, place a protective stop 1.2 ATR below the entry price using the 14 period ATR. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Take profit at 2R. If the close drops back below the 20 day moving average before the target or stop is hit, exit at the next open. If the position has been held for 30 trading days without resolving, exit at the next open as well. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.

Run spec
Window
2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
Universe
220 tickers
Ranking metric
return_pct
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Overall results

Aggregated across 161 runs
220 symbolsBatch
+0.17%
Mean return

Equal-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 3 codegen refinements on pilot

Avg win rate
38.0%

Unweighted mean across successful runs.

Coverage
161/220

161 completed · 59 failed

Avg max drawdown
-4.37%

Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.

Avg risk / reward
1.03

Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.

Total trades
1,783

Summed over successful symbols.

Return distribution

How the 161 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.

Worst-11.34%
Median0.27%
Best12.36%
  • ≤ -10%
    1 (0.6%)
  • -10% to -5%
    18 (11.2%)
  • -5% to -1%
    46 (28.6%)
  • −1% to +1%
    34 (21.1%)
  • +1% to +5%
    41 (25.5%)
  • +5% to +10%
    17 (10.6%)
  • > +10%
    4 (2.5%)

By sector

Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.

Communication Services

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • LYV9.12%
  • META7.85%
  • DIS2.62%
  • CHTR1.56%
  • PINS0.78%
Flop 5
  • OMC-9.02%
  • TTWO-6.22%
  • EA-5.66%
  • VZ-2.71%
  • CMCSA-2.66%

Consumer Discretionary

15 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • BKNG6.62%
  • HD5.80%
  • SBUX4.88%
  • ULTA3.93%
  • F2.85%
Flop 5
  • LOW-9.30%
  • AMZN-4.75%
  • TJX-4.16%
  • MAR-1.22%
  • ORLY-1.15%

Consumer Staples

13 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • COST9.80%
  • KR4.72%
  • PEP2.85%
  • STZ2.11%
  • KMB1.68%
Flop 5
  • WMT-5.67%
  • MDLZ-3.15%
  • EL-0.14%
  • PM-0.14%
  • GIS0.02%

Energy

13 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • VLO5.26%
  • BKR4.15%
  • MPC3.44%
  • CVX3.24%
  • WMB3.19%
Flop 5
  • DVN-6.71%
  • COP-6.19%
  • HAL-5.13%
  • SLB-3.62%
  • EOG-1.79%

Financials

15 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • SPGI6.77%
  • MS4.11%
  • AON1.41%
  • JPM1.38%
  • SCHW0.97%
Flop 5
  • USB-6.96%
  • WFC-6.64%
  • ICE-5.48%
  • TFC-4.72%
  • CME-3.10%

Health Care

14 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • MDT10.91%
  • UNH4.09%
  • LLY2.84%
  • SYK2.64%
  • ABT2.46%
Flop 5
  • REGN-6.58%
  • CVS-5.30%
  • JNJ-2.66%
  • PFE-2.41%
  • GILD-2.37%

Industrials

15 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • DE7.61%
  • UNP2.97%
  • NSC2.42%
  • GD1.40%
  • EMR0.56%
Flop 5
  • UPS-4.76%
  • HON-4.66%
  • ITW-2.97%
  • FDX-2.76%
  • ROK-2.31%

Information Technology

11 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • NOW10.58%
  • CRM8.67%
  • ADBE7.41%
  • AMD5.83%
  • MSFT3.25%
Flop 5
  • AVGO-5.30%
  • INTC-4.93%
  • QCOM-4.06%
  • TXN-3.16%
  • ACN1.58%

Materials

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • FCX7.03%
  • APD6.47%
  • CF6.28%
  • LYB4.92%
  • CTVA3.58%
Flop 5
  • PPG-11.34%
  • DD-5.89%
  • ECL-4.24%
  • EMN-3.81%
  • LIN-3.66%

Real Estate

17 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • DLR12.36%
  • EXR8.68%
  • AMT5.84%
  • PSA2.49%
  • INVH1.51%
Flop 5
  • ESS-8.98%
  • EQIX-6.28%
  • AVB-5.33%
  • WELL-3.67%
  • UDR-3.11%

Utilities

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AEP10.78%
  • SRE5.17%
  • ATO3.80%
  • EXC3.36%
  • AEE3.15%
Flop 5
  • ES-3.95%
  • PCG-3.61%
  • SO-2.74%
  • DTE-1.74%
  • D-1.35%

Disclaimer

Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.

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Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug bollinger-squeeze-breakout