Updated Apr 23, 2026Slight edge 220 tickers

Does 12-1 month momentum work on US large caps?

Across 214 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 0.41%, average max drawdown -2.78%.

A thin edge: +0.41% mean return across 214 tickers, with -2.78% average drawdown — gentle on risk, but the edge is too small to act on alone.

What we tested

Strategy

We want to ride medium term momentum while avoiding short term reversals, using the classic "12 minus 1" momentum score from academic momentum research. For each day, compute the 12 month return as the percentage change from the close 252 trading days ago to today's close. Compute the 1 month return as the percentage change from the close 21 trading days ago to today's close. The 12 minus 1 momentum score is the 12 month return minus the 1 month return. Enter long the next open the first time in 30 trading days that the 12 minus 1 momentum score is positive and is also above its own 21 day simple moving average. On entry, place a protective stop 2 ATR below the entry price using the 14 period ATR. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Once a month, on the first trading day of each new calendar month, check the score again. Exit at the next open if the 12 minus 1 momentum score has turned negative or has fallen below its own 21 day moving average. If the position has been held for 250 trading days without exiting, exit at the next open as well. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.

Run spec
Window
2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
Universe
220 tickers
Ranking metric
return_pct
Tenachine backtest interface: a strategy described in plain English, a ticker selector, date range pickers, and a Run Backtest button.
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Overall results

Aggregated across 214 runs
220 symbolsBatch
+0.41%
Mean return

Equal-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 2 codegen refinements on pilot

Avg win rate
45.7%

Unweighted mean across successful runs.

Coverage
214/220

214 completed · 6 failed

Avg max drawdown
-2.78%

Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.

Avg risk / reward
1.14

Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.

Total trades
2,125

Summed over successful symbols.

Return distribution

How the 214 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.

Worst-7.20%
Median-0.05%
Best11.53%
  • ≤ -10%
    0 (0.0%)
  • -10% to -5%
    4 (1.9%)
  • -5% to -1%
    69 (32.2%)
  • −1% to +1%
    62 (29.0%)
  • +1% to +5%
    64 (29.9%)
  • +5% to +10%
    14 (6.5%)
  • > +10%
    1 (0.5%)

By sector

Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.

Communication Services

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • OMC5.40%
  • NFLX3.92%
  • PINS3.61%
  • CMCSA2.29%
  • FOXA1.30%
Flop 5
  • WBD-7.20%
  • VZ-6.33%
  • EA-2.74%
  • T-2.30%
  • TMUS-2.07%

Consumer Discretionary

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • SBUX6.04%
  • ORLY4.60%
  • MAR4.47%
  • TSLA4.42%
  • YUM4.15%
Flop 5
  • F-3.81%
  • GM-1.79%
  • ULTA-1.57%
  • LULU-1.22%
  • AMZN-1.01%

Consumer Staples

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • COST4.92%
  • EL2.02%
  • HSY1.40%
  • KO1.02%
  • MDLZ-0.58%
Flop 5
  • KMB-5.99%
  • SYY-4.04%
  • PG-3.63%
  • KHC-3.62%
  • PEP-3.58%

Energy

17 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • KMI4.13%
  • DVN2.32%
  • OKE1.77%
  • PSX1.20%
  • HAL0.87%
Flop 5
  • WMB-6.60%
  • BKR-3.64%
  • XOM-3.03%
  • SLB-2.43%
  • VLO-2.23%

Financials

19 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • JPM8.37%
  • ICE7.03%
  • TFC4.55%
  • SCHW4.18%
  • USB3.59%
Flop 5
  • WFC-1.96%
  • AON-1.33%
  • BLK-0.90%
  • SPGI-0.83%
  • GS0.29%

Health Care

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • BSX6.05%
  • BMY4.12%
  • LLY3.65%
  • ABBV3.16%
  • GILD3.02%
Flop 5
  • CVS-4.20%
  • DHR-3.23%
  • MRK-3.06%
  • PFE-2.74%
  • REGN-2.15%

Industrials

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • EMR8.15%
  • PH6.58%
  • CAT4.87%
  • RTX3.63%
  • GD3.26%
Flop 5
  • ROK-2.21%
  • BA-1.74%
  • NOC-1.50%
  • CSX-1.38%
  • DE-1.29%

Information Technology

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AAPL11.53%
  • IBM8.40%
  • NVDA7.59%
  • LRCX7.37%
  • AMD5.87%
Flop 5
  • QCOM-3.37%
  • AVGO-3.20%
  • INTC-3.07%
  • CSCO-2.92%
  • TXN-2.73%

Materials

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • FMC6.42%
  • SHW1.61%
  • LYB1.52%
  • FCX1.33%
  • MOS1.30%
Flop 5
  • APD-2.07%
  • NEM-1.98%
  • PPG-1.44%
  • DD-1.26%
  • CF-1.26%

Real Estate

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • PLD3.95%
  • SPG3.54%
  • AMT1.66%
  • PSA0.84%
  • WELL0.23%
Flop 5
  • CBRE-4.07%
  • O-3.94%
  • INVH-3.47%
  • AVB-3.34%
  • UDR-2.99%

Utilities

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • XEL5.40%
  • EIX4.22%
  • ATO3.94%
  • SO2.17%
  • CNP2.00%
Flop 5
  • ED-3.10%
  • SRE-2.74%
  • CMS-1.58%
  • AEP-1.55%
  • NEE-1.53%

Disclaimer

Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.

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Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug dual-momentum-12-1