Does 12-1 month momentum work on US large caps?
Across 214 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 0.41%, average max drawdown -2.78%.
A thin edge: +0.41% mean return across 214 tickers, with -2.78% average drawdown — gentle on risk, but the edge is too small to act on alone.
What we tested
We want to ride medium term momentum while avoiding short term reversals, using the classic "12 minus 1" momentum score from academic momentum research. For each day, compute the 12 month return as the percentage change from the close 252 trading days ago to today's close. Compute the 1 month return as the percentage change from the close 21 trading days ago to today's close. The 12 minus 1 momentum score is the 12 month return minus the 1 month return. Enter long the next open the first time in 30 trading days that the 12 minus 1 momentum score is positive and is also above its own 21 day simple moving average. On entry, place a protective stop 2 ATR below the entry price using the 14 period ATR. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Once a month, on the first trading day of each new calendar month, check the score again. Exit at the next open if the 12 minus 1 momentum score has turned negative or has fallen below its own 21 day moving average. If the position has been held for 250 trading days without exiting, exit at the next open as well. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.
- Window
- 2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
- Universe
- 220 tickers
- Ranking metric
- return_pct

Overall results
Aggregated across 214 runsEqual-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 2 codegen refinements on pilot
Unweighted mean across successful runs.
214 completed · 6 failed
Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.
Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.
Summed over successful symbols.
Return distribution
How the 214 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.
- ≤ -10%0 (0.0%)
- -10% to -5%4 (1.9%)
- -5% to -1%69 (32.2%)
- −1% to +1%62 (29.0%)
- +1% to +5%64 (29.9%)
- +5% to +10%14 (6.5%)
- > +10%1 (0.5%)
By sector
Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.
Communication Services
18 / 20 completed- OMC5.40%
- NFLX3.92%
- PINS3.61%
- CMCSA2.29%
- FOXA1.30%
- WBD-7.20%
- VZ-6.33%
- EA-2.74%
- T-2.30%
- TMUS-2.07%
Consumer Discretionary
20 / 20 completed- SBUX6.04%
- ORLY4.60%
- MAR4.47%
- TSLA4.42%
- YUM4.15%
- F-3.81%
- GM-1.79%
- ULTA-1.57%
- LULU-1.22%
- AMZN-1.01%
Consumer Staples
20 / 20 completed- COST4.92%
- EL2.02%
- HSY1.40%
- KO1.02%
- MDLZ-0.58%
- KMB-5.99%
- SYY-4.04%
- PG-3.63%
- KHC-3.62%
- PEP-3.58%
Energy
17 / 20 completed- KMI4.13%
- DVN2.32%
- OKE1.77%
- PSX1.20%
- HAL0.87%
- WMB-6.60%
- BKR-3.64%
- XOM-3.03%
- SLB-2.43%
- VLO-2.23%
Financials
19 / 20 completed- JPM8.37%
- ICE7.03%
- TFC4.55%
- SCHW4.18%
- USB3.59%
- WFC-1.96%
- AON-1.33%
- BLK-0.90%
- SPGI-0.83%
- GS0.29%
Health Care
20 / 20 completed- BSX6.05%
- BMY4.12%
- LLY3.65%
- ABBV3.16%
- GILD3.02%
- CVS-4.20%
- DHR-3.23%
- MRK-3.06%
- PFE-2.74%
- REGN-2.15%
Industrials
20 / 20 completed- EMR8.15%
- PH6.58%
- CAT4.87%
- RTX3.63%
- GD3.26%
- ROK-2.21%
- BA-1.74%
- NOC-1.50%
- CSX-1.38%
- DE-1.29%
Information Technology
20 / 20 completed- AAPL11.53%
- IBM8.40%
- NVDA7.59%
- LRCX7.37%
- AMD5.87%
- QCOM-3.37%
- AVGO-3.20%
- INTC-3.07%
- CSCO-2.92%
- TXN-2.73%
Materials
20 / 20 completed- FMC6.42%
- SHW1.61%
- LYB1.52%
- FCX1.33%
- MOS1.30%
- APD-2.07%
- NEM-1.98%
- PPG-1.44%
- DD-1.26%
- CF-1.26%
Real Estate
20 / 20 completed- PLD3.95%
- SPG3.54%
- AMT1.66%
- PSA0.84%
- WELL0.23%
- CBRE-4.07%
- O-3.94%
- INVH-3.47%
- AVB-3.34%
- UDR-2.99%
Utilities
20 / 20 completed- XEL5.40%
- EIX4.22%
- ATO3.94%
- SO2.17%
- CNP2.00%
- ED-3.10%
- SRE-2.74%
- CMS-1.58%
- AEP-1.55%
- NEE-1.53%
Disclaimer
Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.
Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug dual-momentum-12-1