Updated Apr 23, 2026Positive edge 220 tickers

Does the 50/200 golden cross still work on US large caps?

Across 193 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 9.02%, average max drawdown -9.35%.

A clear edge: +9.02% mean return across 193 tickers, with -9.35% average drawdown — meaningful return for the risk taken.

What we tested

Strategy

We want to ride established uptrends in US large caps using the classic 50 over 200 day moving average crossover, often called the golden cross. Enter long the next open after the 50 day simple moving average closes above the 200 day simple moving average for the first time in 30 trading days. On entry, place a protective stop 1.2 ATR below the entry price using the 14 period ATR from the entry bar. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Exit at the next open the first time the 50 day simple moving average closes back below the 200 day simple moving average. If the position has been held for 200 trading days without resolving, exit at the next open as well. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.

Run spec
Window
2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
Universe
220 tickers
Ranking metric
return_pct
Tenachine backtest interface: a strategy described in plain English, a ticker selector, date range pickers, and a Run Backtest button.
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Overall results

Aggregated across 193 runs
220 symbolsBatch
+9.02%
Mean return

Equal-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 2 codegen refinements on pilot

Avg win rate
19.6%

Unweighted mean across successful runs.

Coverage
193/220

193 completed · 27 failed

Avg max drawdown
-9.35%

Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.

Avg risk / reward
2.32

Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.

Total trades
1,316

Summed over successful symbols.

Return distribution

How the 193 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.

Worst-13.03%
Median5.51%
Best119.41%
  • ≤ -10%
    5 (2.6%)
  • -10% to -5%
    42 (21.8%)
  • -5% to -1%
    15 (7.8%)
  • −1% to +1%
    11 (5.7%)
  • +1% to +5%
    19 (9.8%)
  • +5% to +10%
    25 (13.0%)
  • > +10%
    76 (39.4%)

By sector

Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.

Communication Services

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • TMUS36.77%
  • META36.26%
  • PINS25.29%
  • T13.76%
  • LYV10.52%
Flop 5
  • DIS-7.48%
  • NFLX-7.12%
  • EA-5.76%
  • CMCSA-5.53%
  • WBD-5.24%

Consumer Discretionary

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • TSLA119.41%
  • ROST32.79%
  • MCD28.14%
  • CMG27.66%
  • AZO26.89%
Flop 5
  • YUM-9.49%
  • F-8.44%
  • HD-7.27%
  • ULTA-5.60%
  • LULU-5.45%

Consumer Staples

15 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • EL48.57%
  • COST43.14%
  • ADM19.46%
  • GIS13.44%
  • PEP12.38%
Flop 5
  • SYY-10.37%
  • KMB-8.56%
  • MDLZ-7.67%
  • KHC-7.41%
  • PG-6.81%

Energy

14 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • COP38.21%
  • OXY27.86%
  • FANG26.89%
  • EOG16.09%
  • DVN12.08%
Flop 5
  • SLB-8.72%
  • XOM-7.86%
  • VLO-2.55%
  • BKR0.05%
  • KMI3.90%

Financials

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • MCO31.59%
  • SCHW31.22%
  • BK29.63%
  • SPGI22.22%
  • WFC20.08%
Flop 5
  • JPM-4.74%
  • AON-3.75%
  • USB-2.88%
  • CME-1.56%
  • GS3.17%

Health Care

19 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • VRTX61.19%
  • ABBV56.55%
  • DHR53.44%
  • LLY51.01%
  • ISRG41.43%
Flop 5
  • JNJ-11.93%
  • ABT-8.58%
  • MDT-7.26%
  • REGN-6.38%
  • TMO-6.12%

Industrials

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • DE25.84%
  • HON24.85%
  • UPS19.55%
  • FDX19.55%
  • UNP16.85%
Flop 5
  • ROK-13.03%
  • BA-8.07%
  • CAT-7.72%
  • PH-6.76%
  • ETN-4.90%

Information Technology

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • LRCX56.46%
  • CRM36.30%
  • ACN31.09%
  • NVDA28.50%
  • ORCL27.14%
Flop 5
  • ADBE-6.53%
  • NOW-3.12%
  • AMD0.40%
  • AAPL0.72%
  • IBM2.93%

Materials

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • ALB32.33%
  • ECL25.31%
  • FCX22.31%
  • LIN20.72%
  • MLM19.21%
Flop 5
  • LYB-8.45%
  • FMC-7.25%
  • MOS-7.01%
  • NUE-6.96%
  • CTVA-5.22%

Real Estate

19 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • EQR29.56%
  • AMT23.11%
  • WELL21.43%
  • SPG19.84%
  • ARE18.64%
Flop 5
  • VTR-10.00%
  • PSA-9.75%
  • ESS-9.33%
  • CBRE-7.18%
  • INVH-7.10%

Utilities

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AEP17.44%
  • XEL12.70%
  • PEG10.67%
  • AEE8.95%
  • CNP2.89%
Flop 5
  • D-11.30%
  • EXC-10.03%
  • ES-9.20%
  • SO-8.98%
  • ED-7.85%

Disclaimer

Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.

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Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug golden-cross