Does the 50/200 golden cross still work on US large caps?
Across 193 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 9.02%, average max drawdown -9.35%.
A clear edge: +9.02% mean return across 193 tickers, with -9.35% average drawdown — meaningful return for the risk taken.
What we tested
We want to ride established uptrends in US large caps using the classic 50 over 200 day moving average crossover, often called the golden cross. Enter long the next open after the 50 day simple moving average closes above the 200 day simple moving average for the first time in 30 trading days. On entry, place a protective stop 1.2 ATR below the entry price using the 14 period ATR from the entry bar. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Exit at the next open the first time the 50 day simple moving average closes back below the 200 day simple moving average. If the position has been held for 200 trading days without resolving, exit at the next open as well. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.
- Window
- 2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
- Universe
- 220 tickers
- Ranking metric
- return_pct

Overall results
Aggregated across 193 runsEqual-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 2 codegen refinements on pilot
Unweighted mean across successful runs.
193 completed · 27 failed
Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.
Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.
Summed over successful symbols.
Return distribution
How the 193 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.
- ≤ -10%5 (2.6%)
- -10% to -5%42 (21.8%)
- -5% to -1%15 (7.8%)
- −1% to +1%11 (5.7%)
- +1% to +5%19 (9.8%)
- +5% to +10%25 (13.0%)
- > +10%76 (39.4%)
By sector
Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.
Communication Services
16 / 20 completed- TMUS36.77%
- META36.26%
- PINS25.29%
- T13.76%
- LYV10.52%
- DIS-7.48%
- NFLX-7.12%
- EA-5.76%
- CMCSA-5.53%
- WBD-5.24%
Consumer Discretionary
20 / 20 completed- TSLA119.41%
- ROST32.79%
- MCD28.14%
- CMG27.66%
- AZO26.89%
- YUM-9.49%
- F-8.44%
- HD-7.27%
- ULTA-5.60%
- LULU-5.45%
Consumer Staples
15 / 20 completed- EL48.57%
- COST43.14%
- ADM19.46%
- GIS13.44%
- PEP12.38%
- SYY-10.37%
- KMB-8.56%
- MDLZ-7.67%
- KHC-7.41%
- PG-6.81%
Energy
14 / 20 completed- COP38.21%
- OXY27.86%
- FANG26.89%
- EOG16.09%
- DVN12.08%
- SLB-8.72%
- XOM-7.86%
- VLO-2.55%
- BKR0.05%
- KMI3.90%
Financials
18 / 20 completed- MCO31.59%
- SCHW31.22%
- BK29.63%
- SPGI22.22%
- WFC20.08%
- JPM-4.74%
- AON-3.75%
- USB-2.88%
- CME-1.56%
- GS3.17%
Health Care
19 / 20 completed- VRTX61.19%
- ABBV56.55%
- DHR53.44%
- LLY51.01%
- ISRG41.43%
- JNJ-11.93%
- ABT-8.58%
- MDT-7.26%
- REGN-6.38%
- TMO-6.12%
Industrials
18 / 20 completed- DE25.84%
- HON24.85%
- UPS19.55%
- FDX19.55%
- UNP16.85%
- ROK-13.03%
- BA-8.07%
- CAT-7.72%
- PH-6.76%
- ETN-4.90%
Information Technology
18 / 20 completed- LRCX56.46%
- CRM36.30%
- ACN31.09%
- NVDA28.50%
- ORCL27.14%
- ADBE-6.53%
- NOW-3.12%
- AMD0.40%
- AAPL0.72%
- IBM2.93%
Materials
20 / 20 completed- ALB32.33%
- ECL25.31%
- FCX22.31%
- LIN20.72%
- MLM19.21%
- LYB-8.45%
- FMC-7.25%
- MOS-7.01%
- NUE-6.96%
- CTVA-5.22%
Real Estate
19 / 20 completed- EQR29.56%
- AMT23.11%
- WELL21.43%
- SPG19.84%
- ARE18.64%
- VTR-10.00%
- PSA-9.75%
- ESS-9.33%
- CBRE-7.18%
- INVH-7.10%
Utilities
16 / 20 completed- AEP17.44%
- XEL12.70%
- PEG10.67%
- AEE8.95%
- CNP2.89%
- D-11.30%
- EXC-10.03%
- ES-9.20%
- SO-8.98%
- ED-7.85%
Disclaimer
Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.
Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug golden-cross