Do NR7 volatility contractions predict profitable breakouts?
Across 200 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was -0.09%, average max drawdown -0.38%.
Roughly flat: -0.09% mean return across 200 tickers, with -0.38% average drawdown — no real edge, but no real damage either.
What we tested
We want to buy breakouts that come out of volatility contractions, using the classic NR7 (narrowest range of seven days) pattern. A bar is "NR7" when its high minus low is the smallest range of the previous seven bars including itself. Enter long the next open after a day where today is an NR7 bar, yesterday was also an NR7 bar (so two NR7 bars in a row), today's close finishes above today's open, and today's close is above the 50 day simple moving average. On entry, place the protective stop just below the lowest low of those two NR7 bars. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Take profit at 2R, twice the distance between entry and stop. If neither the stop nor the target is hit within 15 trading days, exit at the next open. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.
- Window
- 2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
- Universe
- 220 tickers
- Ranking metric
- return_pct

Overall results
Aggregated across 200 runsEqual-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 1 codegen refinement on pilot
Unweighted mean across successful runs.
200 completed · 20 failed
Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.
Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.
Summed over successful symbols.
Return distribution
How the 200 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.
- ≤ -10%0 (0.0%)
- -10% to -5%0 (0.0%)
- -5% to -1%12 (6.0%)
- −1% to +1%178 (89.0%)
- +1% to +5%10 (5.0%)
- +5% to +10%0 (0.0%)
- > +10%0 (0.0%)
By sector
Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.
Communication Services
18 / 20 completed- OMC1.61%
- LYV0.62%
- WBD0.47%
- GOOGL0.00%
- GOOG0.00%
- FOXA-1.36%
- PINS-0.42%
- MTCH-0.27%
- TTWO0.00%
- EA0.00%
Consumer Discretionary
19 / 20 completed- AMZN0.00%
- TSLA0.00%
- HD0.00%
- MCD0.00%
- NKE0.00%
- F-0.95%
- GM-0.92%
- MAR-0.52%
- HLT-0.23%
- YUM-0.18%
Consumer Staples
16 / 20 completed- WMT0.33%
- PEP0.00%
- COST0.00%
- MDLZ0.00%
- PM0.00%
- KO-1.04%
- HSY-0.86%
- ADM-0.47%
- KMB-0.34%
- KHC-0.32%
Energy
16 / 20 completed- XOM1.87%
- BKR0.31%
- EOG0.28%
- DVN0.03%
- PSX0.00%
- CVX-1.79%
- WMB-1.58%
- HAL-0.62%
- SLB-0.59%
- OKE-0.54%
Financials
16 / 20 completed- BAC0.51%
- TFC0.31%
- CME0.00%
- ICE0.00%
- MCO0.00%
- SPGI-1.37%
- JPM-1.27%
- PNC-1.07%
- USB-0.58%
- BLK-0.53%
Health Care
18 / 20 completed- AMGN2.70%
- BMY1.20%
- REGN1.09%
- JNJ0.00%
- LLY0.00%
- VRTX-2.50%
- GILD-1.00%
- ISRG-0.95%
- CVS-0.16%
- CI0.00%
Industrials
20 / 20 completed- NSC2.88%
- RTX1.78%
- BA0.00%
- HON0.00%
- LMT0.00%
- CAT-1.10%
- CMI-0.81%
- ITW-0.70%
- EMR-0.69%
- FDX-0.60%
Information Technology
20 / 20 completed- TXN2.72%
- INTC0.71%
- AAPL0.58%
- MSFT0.00%
- NVDA0.00%
- ORCL-0.98%
- LRCX-0.35%
- NOW-0.30%
- QCOM-0.15%
- IBM-0.12%
Materials
18 / 20 completed- CTVA1.31%
- FMC0.10%
- ECL0.00%
- DD0.00%
- MLM0.00%
- PPG-2.09%
- SHW-0.77%
- MOS-0.68%
- APD-0.46%
- STLD-0.36%
Real Estate
20 / 20 completed- AMT0.00%
- EQIX0.00%
- CCI0.00%
- O0.00%
- PSA0.00%
- VTR-1.11%
- WELL-0.92%
- SPG-0.67%
- CBRE-0.26%
- VICI-0.23%
Utilities
19 / 20 completed- EIX2.49%
- PCG0.05%
- NEE0.00%
- AEP0.00%
- EXC0.00%
- CNP-1.68%
- D-0.49%
- ED-0.19%
- DUK-0.18%
- SO-0.17%
Disclaimer
Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.
Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug nr7-volatility-breakout