Updated Apr 23, 2026Mixed results 220 tickers

Do NR7 volatility contractions predict profitable breakouts?

Across 200 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was -0.09%, average max drawdown -0.38%.

Roughly flat: -0.09% mean return across 200 tickers, with -0.38% average drawdown — no real edge, but no real damage either.

What we tested

Strategy

We want to buy breakouts that come out of volatility contractions, using the classic NR7 (narrowest range of seven days) pattern. A bar is "NR7" when its high minus low is the smallest range of the previous seven bars including itself. Enter long the next open after a day where today is an NR7 bar, yesterday was also an NR7 bar (so two NR7 bars in a row), today's close finishes above today's open, and today's close is above the 50 day simple moving average. On entry, place the protective stop just below the lowest low of those two NR7 bars. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Take profit at 2R, twice the distance between entry and stop. If neither the stop nor the target is hit within 15 trading days, exit at the next open. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.

Run spec
Window
2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
Universe
220 tickers
Ranking metric
return_pct
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Overall results

Aggregated across 200 runs
220 symbolsBatch
-0.09%
Mean return

Equal-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 1 codegen refinement on pilot

Avg win rate
10.2%

Unweighted mean across successful runs.

Coverage
200/220

200 completed · 20 failed

Avg max drawdown
-0.38%

Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.

Avg risk / reward
0.70

Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.

Total trades
438

Summed over successful symbols.

Return distribution

How the 200 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.

Worst-2.50%
Median0.00%
Best2.88%
  • ≤ -10%
    0 (0.0%)
  • -10% to -5%
    0 (0.0%)
  • -5% to -1%
    12 (6.0%)
  • −1% to +1%
    178 (89.0%)
  • +1% to +5%
    10 (5.0%)
  • +5% to +10%
    0 (0.0%)
  • > +10%
    0 (0.0%)

By sector

Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.

Communication Services

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • OMC1.61%
  • LYV0.62%
  • WBD0.47%
  • GOOGL0.00%
  • GOOG0.00%
Flop 5
  • FOXA-1.36%
  • PINS-0.42%
  • MTCH-0.27%
  • TTWO0.00%
  • EA0.00%

Consumer Discretionary

19 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AMZN0.00%
  • TSLA0.00%
  • HD0.00%
  • MCD0.00%
  • NKE0.00%
Flop 5
  • F-0.95%
  • GM-0.92%
  • MAR-0.52%
  • HLT-0.23%
  • YUM-0.18%

Consumer Staples

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • WMT0.33%
  • PEP0.00%
  • COST0.00%
  • MDLZ0.00%
  • PM0.00%
Flop 5
  • KO-1.04%
  • HSY-0.86%
  • ADM-0.47%
  • KMB-0.34%
  • KHC-0.32%

Energy

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • XOM1.87%
  • BKR0.31%
  • EOG0.28%
  • DVN0.03%
  • PSX0.00%
Flop 5
  • CVX-1.79%
  • WMB-1.58%
  • HAL-0.62%
  • SLB-0.59%
  • OKE-0.54%

Financials

16 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • BAC0.51%
  • TFC0.31%
  • CME0.00%
  • ICE0.00%
  • MCO0.00%
Flop 5
  • SPGI-1.37%
  • JPM-1.27%
  • PNC-1.07%
  • USB-0.58%
  • BLK-0.53%

Health Care

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AMGN2.70%
  • BMY1.20%
  • REGN1.09%
  • JNJ0.00%
  • LLY0.00%
Flop 5
  • VRTX-2.50%
  • GILD-1.00%
  • ISRG-0.95%
  • CVS-0.16%
  • CI0.00%

Industrials

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • NSC2.88%
  • RTX1.78%
  • BA0.00%
  • HON0.00%
  • LMT0.00%
Flop 5
  • CAT-1.10%
  • CMI-0.81%
  • ITW-0.70%
  • EMR-0.69%
  • FDX-0.60%

Information Technology

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • TXN2.72%
  • INTC0.71%
  • AAPL0.58%
  • MSFT0.00%
  • NVDA0.00%
Flop 5
  • ORCL-0.98%
  • LRCX-0.35%
  • NOW-0.30%
  • QCOM-0.15%
  • IBM-0.12%

Materials

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • CTVA1.31%
  • FMC0.10%
  • ECL0.00%
  • DD0.00%
  • MLM0.00%
Flop 5
  • PPG-2.09%
  • SHW-0.77%
  • MOS-0.68%
  • APD-0.46%
  • STLD-0.36%

Real Estate

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AMT0.00%
  • EQIX0.00%
  • CCI0.00%
  • O0.00%
  • PSA0.00%
Flop 5
  • VTR-1.11%
  • WELL-0.92%
  • SPG-0.67%
  • CBRE-0.26%
  • VICI-0.23%

Utilities

19 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • EIX2.49%
  • PCG0.05%
  • NEE0.00%
  • AEP0.00%
  • EXC0.00%
Flop 5
  • CNP-1.68%
  • D-0.49%
  • ED-0.19%
  • DUK-0.18%
  • SO-0.17%

Disclaimer

Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.

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Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug nr7-volatility-breakout