Updated Jul 29, 2026Slight edge 220 tickers

Does a Stochastic oversold bounce work as a swing trade entry?

Across 214 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 0.46%, average max drawdown -5.48%.

A thin edge: +0.46% mean return across 214 tickers, with -5.48% average drawdown — the edge is too small to call a live signal.

What we tested

Strategy

We want to catch short-term bounces in stocks that are still in a long-term uptrend, using the Stochastic oscillator to time the entry. Compute the 14 period Stochastic %K and its 3 period simple moving average as %D. Enter long when %K crosses above %D while both are below 20 (an oversold crossover), and the close is above the 200 day simple moving average. On the entry bar, measure the 14 period ATR and place a protective stop 1.5 ATR below the entry price. Size the position so that hitting that stop loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Take profit at 1.5R, that is one and a half times the distance between entry and stop, placed above the entry. If %K crosses back above 80 before either level is hit, exit at the next open. If the position has been held for 20 trading days without resolving, exit at the next open as well. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.

Run spec
Window
2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
Universe
220 tickers
Ranking metric
return_pct
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Overall results

Aggregated across 214 runs
220 symbolsBatch
+0.46%
Mean return

Equal-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 2 codegen refinements on pilot

Avg win rate
47.3%

Unweighted mean across successful runs.

Coverage
214/220

214 completed · 6 failed

Avg max drawdown
-5.48%

Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.

Avg risk / reward
1.04

Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.

Total trades
4,394

Summed over successful symbols.

Return distribution

How the 214 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.

Worst-10.90%
Median0.40%
Best23.07%
  • ≤ -10%
    3 (1.4%)
  • -10% to -5%
    31 (14.5%)
  • -5% to -1%
    49 (22.9%)
  • −1% to +1%
    37 (17.3%)
  • +1% to +5%
    53 (24.8%)
  • +5% to +10%
    30 (14.0%)
  • > +10%
    11 (5.1%)

By sector

Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.

Communication Services

18 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • NFLX8.60%
  • OMC6.61%
  • EA5.30%
  • FOXA2.42%
  • T2.26%
Flop 5
  • DIS-6.10%
  • PINS-5.05%
  • WBD-4.69%
  • TMUS-3.56%
  • MTCH-3.49%

Consumer Discretionary

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • HLT14.78%
  • MCD9.35%
  • ORLY8.07%
  • GM6.23%
  • NKE1.33%
Flop 5
  • F-9.86%
  • ULTA-9.37%
  • ROST-8.27%
  • CMG-8.13%
  • HD-6.87%

Consumer Staples

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • PG5.86%
  • KR1.66%
  • WMT1.52%
  • CLX1.23%
  • PM0.94%
Flop 5
  • STZ-9.03%
  • MO-7.77%
  • CL-6.84%
  • COST-6.80%
  • SYY-5.20%

Energy

17 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • FANG4.38%
  • VLO3.88%
  • DVN2.85%
  • CVX2.83%
  • XOM2.76%
Flop 5
  • OXY-10.58%
  • PSX-7.71%
  • WMB-6.21%
  • APA-6.02%
  • BKR-5.76%

Financials

19 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • JPM14.61%
  • SCHW8.53%
  • GS4.23%
  • MCO2.96%
  • C2.64%
Flop 5
  • BLK-8.42%
  • BAC-6.57%
  • WFC-5.46%
  • ICE-4.53%
  • PNC-4.39%

Health Care

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • VRTX23.07%
  • ISRG5.79%
  • CVS3.98%
  • ABT3.48%
  • UNH3.26%
Flop 5
  • AMGN-10.20%
  • REGN-9.72%
  • MDT-4.97%
  • ABBV-4.49%
  • TMO-2.77%

Industrials

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • CAT6.66%
  • FDX5.84%
  • NOC5.31%
  • ROK4.57%
  • GD4.52%
Flop 5
  • UNP-6.73%
  • LMT-6.02%
  • EMR-5.41%
  • CMI-4.69%
  • ITW-3.77%

Information Technology

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AVGO17.27%
  • AMAT15.32%
  • ACN13.09%
  • CRM11.79%
  • TXN11.02%
Flop 5
  • IBM-7.71%
  • AAPL-2.81%
  • MSFT-2.36%
  • AMD0.35%
  • CSCO0.62%

Materials

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • FMC12.61%
  • LIN11.26%
  • STLD7.42%
  • MLM6.76%
  • DD6.56%
Flop 5
  • PPG-10.90%
  • SHW-9.57%
  • LYB-5.92%
  • VMC-3.38%
  • FCX-2.79%

Real Estate

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • INVH9.26%
  • WELL8.79%
  • ARE6.75%
  • CCI6.07%
  • ESS5.80%
Flop 5
  • PSA-8.65%
  • VTR-8.28%
  • VICI-5.75%
  • EXR-4.50%
  • SPG-2.99%

Utilities

20 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • DUK9.05%
  • XEL6.12%
  • AEP5.26%
  • CMS2.65%
  • NEE2.62%
Flop 5
  • SRE-9.41%
  • PEG-7.67%
  • AEE-4.03%
  • EIX-3.25%
  • EXC-2.75%

Disclaimer

Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.

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Generated Jul 29, 2026 · slug stochastic-oversold-bounce