Updated Apr 23, 2026Slight edge 220 tickers

Do 'three weeks tight' patterns lead to profitable breakouts?

Across 142 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 2.66%, average max drawdown -6.48%.

A modest edge: +2.66% mean return across 142 tickers, with -6.48% average drawdown — directional, though execution costs would chew into it.

What we tested

Strategy

We want to buy breakouts that come out of a tight three week consolidation, the classic William O'Neil "three weeks tight" pattern. Group daily bars into weekly bars from Monday close to Friday close. A "three weeks tight" pattern occurs when the last three completed weekly closes are all within 1.5 percent of each other. In other words, the highest of the three weekly closes is no more than 1.5 percent above the lowest of those three weekly closes. Enter long the next open after a daily close that is above the highest of those three weekly closes, provided the daily close is also above the 50 day simple moving average. On entry, place a protective stop just below the lowest daily low of the three week consolidation, but no more than 5 percent below the entry price. Size the position so a stop-out loses exactly 1 percent of account equity. Round down to a whole number of shares. Take profit at 2R, twice the entry to stop distance. If the position has been held for 40 trading days without resolving, exit at the next open. Long only. One open position per ticker at a time. No leverage and no pyramiding.

Run spec
Window
2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
Universe
220 tickers
Ranking metric
return_pct
Tenachine backtest interface: a strategy described in plain English, a ticker selector, date range pickers, and a Run Backtest button.
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Overall results

Aggregated across 142 runs
220 symbolsBatch
+2.66%
Mean return

Equal-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 1 codegen refinement on pilot

Avg win rate
48.7%

Unweighted mean across successful runs.

Coverage
142/220

142 completed · 78 failed

Avg max drawdown
-6.48%

Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.

Avg risk / reward
1.20

Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.

Total trades
3,394

Summed over successful symbols.

Return distribution

How the 142 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.

Worst-11.99%
Median2.28%
Best31.61%
  • ≤ -10%
    4 (2.8%)
  • -10% to -5%
    22 (15.5%)
  • -5% to -1%
    22 (15.5%)
  • −1% to +1%
    14 (9.9%)
  • +1% to +5%
    30 (21.1%)
  • +5% to +10%
    30 (21.1%)
  • > +10%
    20 (14.1%)

By sector

Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.

Communication Services

14 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • NFLX18.85%
  • GOOGL14.18%
  • LYV12.48%
  • GOOG9.04%
  • TTWO7.80%
Flop 5
  • T-7.08%
  • OMC-5.93%
  • PINS-4.08%
  • MTCH-3.86%
  • EA-1.52%

Consumer Discretionary

12 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AMZN31.61%
  • HD28.73%
  • BKNG7.48%
  • TJX4.33%
  • CMG3.22%
Flop 5
  • F-3.91%
  • ROST-3.29%
  • GM-3.12%
  • LULU-0.59%
  • YUM1.48%

Consumer Staples

11 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • COST18.15%
  • ADM14.65%
  • EL9.58%
  • MO8.03%
  • HSY5.93%
Flop 5
  • KHC-7.93%
  • CLX-5.34%
  • KR-4.36%
  • PEP-3.33%
  • WMT1.36%

Energy

13 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • WMB9.40%
  • MPC5.94%
  • BKR5.55%
  • OKE2.19%
  • HAL1.41%
Flop 5
  • PSX-9.69%
  • COP-6.98%
  • XOM-6.09%
  • VLO-5.42%
  • FANG-4.28%

Financials

14 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • MCO12.81%
  • SPGI8.50%
  • SCHW7.10%
  • AON6.95%
  • PNC4.60%
Flop 5
  • USB-10.65%
  • BAC-7.09%
  • COF-5.98%
  • WFC-5.63%
  • BK-5.24%

Health Care

13 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • ISRG20.66%
  • DHR12.05%
  • ABBV8.59%
  • JNJ6.83%
  • UNH6.20%
Flop 5
  • BMY-11.99%
  • GILD-5.63%
  • CVS-3.60%
  • PFE-3.57%
  • MDT-0.75%

Industrials

13 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • LMT12.55%
  • UNP10.34%
  • BA10.23%
  • PH9.60%
  • DE7.23%
Flop 5
  • ITW-7.27%
  • FDX-5.93%
  • EMR-2.68%
  • RTX-0.50%
  • NOC0.02%

Information Technology

12 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • MSFT23.31%
  • NVDA16.60%
  • NOW12.78%
  • ADBE6.21%
  • AAPL5.56%
Flop 5
  • PANW-9.41%
  • CSCO-9.18%
  • QCOM-2.09%
  • IBM-1.78%
  • INTC0.96%

Materials

14 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • NUE12.38%
  • CF6.79%
  • DOW6.41%
  • ALB5.36%
  • APD4.79%
Flop 5
  • PPG-10.13%
  • NEM-7.44%
  • CTVA-6.77%
  • MOS-2.41%
  • FCX0.98%

Real Estate

12 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • AMT19.20%
  • PLD6.85%
  • EQIX4.98%
  • AVB4.84%
  • VICI2.15%
Flop 5
  • ARE-11.11%
  • WELL-7.18%
  • INVH-6.42%
  • CCI-1.65%
  • ESS-0.92%

Utilities

14 / 20 completed
Top 5
  • WEC14.16%
  • ATO13.06%
  • PEG9.04%
  • PPL6.12%
  • DUK5.52%
Flop 5
  • CNP-4.61%
  • D-3.90%
  • EIX-1.00%
  • NEE-0.38%
  • EXC1.10%

Disclaimer

Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.

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Generated Apr 23, 2026 · slug three-weeks-tight