Does a Williams %R oversold reversal signal a good entry?
Across 214 of 220 tickers between 2015-01-01 and 2024-12-31, average return was 27.21%, average max drawdown -31.88%.
A clear edge: +27.21% mean return across 214 tickers, with -31.88% average drawdown — meaningful return for the risk taken.
What we tested
Buy when the 14 period Williams %R crosses above negative 80 while the close is above the 200 day simple moving average. On entry, place a stop 1.5 ATR(14) below entry and a target 1.5R above entry. Exit at the next open if Williams %R crosses back above negative 20, or after 20 trading days. Risk 1 percent of equity per trade. Long only, one open position per ticker, no pyramiding.
- Window
- 2015-01-01 → 2024-12-31
- Universe
- 220 tickers
- Ranking metric
- return_pct
Overall results
Aggregated across 214 runsEqual-weighted mean of total return across symbols that completed. · 1 codegen refinement on pilot
Unweighted mean across successful runs.
214 completed · 6 failed
Mean of worst peak-to-trough per symbol.
Aggregate gross profit ÷ gross loss.
Summed over successful symbols.
Return distribution
How the 214 tickers split up across return_pct buckets. Reads left to right from worst to best.
- ≤ -10%44 (20.6%)
- -10% to -5%12 (5.6%)
- -5% to -1%7 (3.3%)
- −1% to +1%7 (3.3%)
- +1% to +5%12 (5.6%)
- +5% to +10%18 (8.4%)
- > +10%114 (53.3%)
By sector
Top and flop names per GICS sector, ranked by return_pct.
Communication Services
18 / 20 completed- META261.63%
- GOOGL150.06%
- GOOG117.49%
- LYV101.42%
- PINS95.82%
- WBD-46.92%
- FOXA-27.24%
- MTCH-24.27%
- DIS-5.20%
- CMCSA1.07%
Consumer Discretionary
20 / 20 completed- HLT145.10%
- BKNG106.68%
- AMZN65.53%
- ORLY48.73%
- AZO41.29%
- TSLA-49.99%
- LOW-22.53%
- F-12.99%
- TJX-6.02%
- GM-0.66%
Consumer Staples
20 / 20 completed- HSY35.65%
- KO31.56%
- CLX31.03%
- PG26.09%
- KMB16.04%
- KHC-46.21%
- STZ-34.90%
- TGT-19.91%
- SYY-13.64%
- PM-12.55%
Energy
17 / 20 completed- FANG253.95%
- OKE68.48%
- XOM45.74%
- OXY44.75%
- COP32.67%
- HAL-72.27%
- PSX-54.58%
- APA-29.54%
- KMI-22.79%
- BKR-19.21%
Financials
19 / 20 completed- COF65.51%
- C54.37%
- GS45.08%
- CME44.13%
- BK37.27%
- SCHW-28.96%
- USB-9.00%
- SPGI-8.78%
- TFC-5.67%
- AON-5.56%
Health Care
20 / 20 completed- UNH158.99%
- LLY148.67%
- VRTX109.73%
- SYK40.18%
- ABT19.27%
- BMY-46.91%
- JNJ-37.50%
- PFE-36.15%
- REGN-20.59%
- MDT-12.77%
Industrials
20 / 20 completed- CAT65.98%
- GD59.36%
- HON50.69%
- CMI49.31%
- EMR42.31%
- NSC-50.20%
- LMT-35.56%
- BA-20.22%
- DE-7.30%
- RTX1.28%
Information Technology
20 / 20 completed- AMD308.45%
- AMAT290.16%
- AVGO258.97%
- MSFT158.38%
- LRCX128.69%
- QCOM-23.02%
- AAPL5.14%
- IBM6.74%
- ACN20.65%
- ADBE20.66%
Materials
20 / 20 completed- CTVA112.78%
- LIN85.83%
- FMC75.44%
- EMN75.05%
- STLD67.80%
- ALB-25.14%
- DD-7.02%
- VMC-2.49%
- ECL3.07%
- DOW4.64%
Real Estate
20 / 20 completed- DLR95.86%
- WELL62.10%
- EQIX58.55%
- INVH41.37%
- ARE37.18%
- VICI-43.61%
- O-42.86%
- PSA-37.21%
- SPG-17.66%
- ESS-17.64%
Utilities
20 / 20 completed- PCG80.24%
- PEG67.87%
- EXC45.92%
- ATO42.92%
- NEE27.86%
- PPL-35.70%
- EIX-29.50%
- AEP-23.46%
- ED-23.26%
- XEL-18.17%
Disclaimer
Past performance does not predict future results. This is a backtest over a fixed historical window and it does not model execution costs, borrowing, taxes, or survivorship of the universe. Nothing here is investment advice.
Generated Jul 30, 2026 · slug williams-r-reversal