How to test an idea before you risk money on it.
Written guides on backtesting, systematic strategy design and reading what super investors actually hold. Plain English, real numbers, no advice.
A low win rate is not a red flag in a backtest
Win rate is the easiest number on a backtest report to misread. Four studies on the same 220 stocks show it climbing from 10 percent to 69 percent while return does the opposite, the same and then the opposite again.
7 min readRead the spread, not the average, when you judge a backtest
The single number at the top of a backtest is the least useful thing on the page. The shape underneath it tells you whether the edge is real or whether two lucky stocks carried the whole result.
6 min read